UFC 316: Can Sean O'Malley Redeem Himself Against Merab Dvalishvili? | Full Card Breakdown & Betting Predictions
In-depth preview of UFC 316's explosive main card, featuring the O'Malley-Dvalishvili bantamweight rematch and Peña vs Harrison title clash, with expert analysis and betting tips.
UFC 316 Main Event: A Redemption Arc for O'Malley?
The highly anticipated rematch between bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili and former titleholder Sean O'Malley headlines UFC 316 on June 7th. Their first encounter at UFC 306 saw Dvalishvili dominate with his relentless wrestling, securing six takedowns and 10+ minutes of control time.
Keys to the Rematch:
- O'Malley's Strike Volume: Landed just 49 strikes in their first fight (vs 232 against Vera in 5 rounds)
- Takedown Defense: Dvalishvili averages 5.2 takedowns per 15 minutes (UFC record 92 total)
- Energy Management: Dvalishvili's 49-takedown attempt fight vs Yan shows his exhausting style
"O'Malley must balance defensive responsibility with offensive outbursts - he can't win trading single strikes for takedowns" - Jeff Wagenheim, ESPN MMA
Co-Main Event: Harrison's Ultimate Test
Two-time PFL champion Kayla Harrison gets her first UFC title shot against reigning bantamweight queen Julianna Peña, who memorably dethroned Amanda Nunes in 2021.
Fight Dynamics:
- Size vs Experience: Harrison cuts from 155lbs; Peña owns 5 UFC main event wins
- Grapple Battle: Both athletes hold black belts in BJJ (Harrison 2x Olympic judo gold)
- Striking Differential: Peña lands 4.27 significant strikes/minute vs Harrison's 3.91
Expert Betting Predictions
Ian Parker's Picks (ESPN Betting Analyst):
- Dvalishvili by Decision (-150): 71% of his wins come via decision
- Harrison Inside Distance (-120): 8/10 pro wins by finish
- Prop Bet: Fight Goes Under 4.5 Rounds (+110) for co-main
UFC 316 Fight Card Highlights
| Fight | Significance |
|---|---|
| Dvalishvili (C) vs O'Malley 2 | Bantamweight Title Rematch |
| Peña (C) vs Harrison | Potential Superfight vs Nunes at Stake |
| Jalin Turner vs Dan Hooker | Lightweight Title Eliminator |
Prelims begin at 6pm ET on ESPN+, Main Card at 10pm ET on ESPN+ PPV
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