Pitching Insights for Thursday's MLB Slate

With a condensed 5-game schedule, pitcher selection requires surgical precision. Here's the breakdown of top arms:

Elite Starting Options:

• Joe Ryan (Twins) leads projections with 10.9 FPTS despite facing Houston's potent lineup. His 6.5 projected Ks and 54% win probability make him the day's safest play.
• Merrill Kelly (D-Backs) presents intriguing upside at Yankee Stadium (60% W%), though the risk of serving meatballs to Judge & Co. looms large.

High-Risk Streaming Targets:

• Nestor Cortes (Brewers) carries HR concerns after allowing 5 homers in his debut, but Milwaukee's pitcher-friendly tendencies could redeem him.
• Carlos Carrasco (Yankees) is a desperation play with a 5.02 ERA since 2019 - stack Diamondbacks hitters against him.

Bullpen Leverage Plays

With sparse SP options, relief pitchers offer sneaky value:

• Trevor Megill (MIL), A.J. Puk (ARI), and Jordan Romano (PHI) all carry save potential and are available in >50% of leagues.

Hitter Matchup Breakdown

Prime Streaming Targets:

Weather-Impacted Avoids:

• MIN/HOU bats face brutal conditions at Target Field (Temp: F, Wind: A). Joe Ryan vs. Hunter Brown makes this a pitching duel to avoid.

Prop Bet Spotlight

Top HR Props (THE BAT X Projections):

1. Triston Casas +800 (17% hit probability)
   • 10.6 mph CF wind at Fenway boosts lefty power
2. Cedric Mullins +800 (14%)
   • Optimized 37.5% ideal launch angle in past week

Strikeout Value:

• Joe Ryan O5.5 Ks (-160)
  • 69% probability against Houston's righty-heavy lineup
• Charlie Morton O5.5 Ks (-120)
  • Faces 3 Red Sox batters with 27%+ K rates

Ballpark Factors: