Final Four Showdown: Breaking Down the Top Contenders

The 2025 Women's NCAA Tournament reaches its climax with three #1 seeds (South Carolina, UCLA, Texas) and perennial powerhouse #2 seed UConn competing for championship glory in Tampa. Here's our deep dive into the smartest betting opportunities.

🔥 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Texas Longhorns (7 PM ET)

Recommended Bet: South Carolina Team Total Over 64.5 Points (-110)

• Key Insight: The market has drastically adjusted expectations since these teams' January meeting (145.5 total) to just 124.5 now - the lowest Gamecocks team total all season.
• Why It Works:
  • Texas averaged just 53.7 PPG in three previous meetings
  • Dawn Staley's squad boasts the nation's #2 offensive efficiency (92.1 PPG)
  • Gamecocks went over this line in 28 of 36 games this season

📊 Trend to Watch: Under hit in all three previous matchups, but South Carolina's improved perimeter shooting (38.2% 3PT in tournament) creates new dynamics.

🚀 UCLA Bruins vs. UConn Huskies (9 PM ET)

Recommended Bet: Over 135.5 Total Points (-115)

• Statistical Edge:
  • Combined 18.8 made threes per game in tournament play
  • UConn's 42.6% 3PT shooting leads all Final Four teams
  • Bruins average 84.3 PPG in postseason
• Matchup Keys:
  • Lauren Betts' rim protection vs UConn's elite spacing
  • Huskies' vulnerable interior defense (allowed 52% 2PT shooting in Elite Eight)

💡 X-Factor: Cori Close's Bruins have scored 70+ in 13 straight games - if they maintain that baseline, this over becomes highly achievable.

Handicapping Insights

• Injury Watch: UConn's Azzi Fudd appears fully healthy (19 PPG last 3 games)
• Pace Breakdown: Texas-South Carolina projects as grind (62 possessions), while UCLA-UConn could hit 70+
• Vegas Movement: Early money favoring UCLA +4.5 after opening at +6

All odds current as of April 3, 2025. For live lines, visit ESPN BET.