Starting Pitcher Rankings & Analysis

Top Tier Arms (FPTS > 10.0):

• Tyler Glasnow (R, TB @ PHI): Elite strikeout upside (7.2 projected Ks) despite tough Phillies matchup. -135 ML favorite.
• Corbin Burnes (R, BAL @ WSH): Safest option with 74% win probability against weak Nationals offense (-180 ML).
• Bryan Woo (R, SEA @ SF): Sneaky value play at +110 odds; excels at inducing weak contact (5.1% barrel rate allowed).

Streaming Specials (Rostered <50%):

• Jordan Hicks (SF): electric stuff vs. strikeout-prone Mariners (25.8% team K-rate).
• Drew Rasmussen (TB): Career 2.91 ERA pitcher with sneaky DFS upside despite tough TEX matchup.
• Ronel Blanco (HOU): Emerging as Houston's secret weapon with 55% win probability vs. MIN.

Key Stat: Only 7 of 30 Sunday starters are rostered >50%, creating massive streaming opportunities.

Hitting Matchups to Exploit

Prime Targets:

• Colorado Rockies vs. Joey Estes (OAK):
  • Coors Field effect (+10.5 projected run total)
  • Estes' 16.4% career K-rate invites contact
  • Top Plays: Brenton Doyle (20% barrel rate), Ezequiel Tovar (.320 xwOBA vs RHP)

Under-the-Radar Plays:

• SF Giants vs. Bryan Woo:
  • Woo allows .342 wOBA to LHBs (target LaMonte Wade Jr.)
• Mets vs. Bowden Francis:
  • Francis struggles with command (4.8 BB/9); ride Pete Alonso's power upside

Betting Corner (Via THE BAT X Model)

Best Bets:

• ATL Braves Team Total Over 4.5 (-110): Sandy Alcantara's velocity dip (94.6 mph → 92.3 mph) spells trouble vs. MLB's best offense.
• Tyler Glasnow Under 7.5 Ks (-125): PHI's 19.8% K-rate vs. RHPs minimizes ceiling.
• COL/OAK Over 10.5 (-105): Coors Field + two weak rotations = fireworks.

Prop to Watch: Corbin Burnes to record 6+ Ks (-140) - Washington strikes out 24.1% vs. RHPs (3rd highest).

Fantasy Quick Hits

• Must-Start: Luis Arraez (MIA) - .401 xBA vs. LHP Tyler Anderson
• Sit Alert: Phillies RHBs (Turner/Bohm) vs. Glasnow's elite slider (.187 BAA)
• Deep League Gem: Michael Toglia (COL) - 45% hard-hit rate in April

Updated 4/5/25 4:28 PM ET - Monitor @ESPNFantasy for late lineup changes