2025 NBA Playoffs Betting Guide: Expert Picks, Dark Horses, and Championship Predictions
ESPN's NBA betting analysts reveal top futures bets, undervalued teams, and bold predictions for the 2025 postseason. Discover expert insights on championship contenders and MVP candidates.

Top Expert Futures Bets for the 2025 NBA Championship
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (+180)
- Alexander: "OKC's historic 68-win season showcases unmatched depth and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's MVP-caliber leadership. Their league-best 118.2 Offensive Rating and 107.8 Defensive Rating make them the most complete team."
2. Los Angeles Lakers (+1400)
- Moody: "The LeBron-Doncic tandem averages 58.3 combined PPG with elite playmaking. While defensive questions linger, their 121.4 Offensive Rating in clutch situations makes them a dangerous underdog."
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (+575)
- Snellings: "Cleveland's league-leading 64 wins and +9.5 scoring margin shouldn't be overlooked. Mitchell's 33.7 PPG against Boston this season could prove pivotal in the East."
Dark Horse Contenders
Denver Nuggets (+3000)
- Karabell: "Jokic's playoff-tested triple-double machine (28.9/12.4/9.1 regular season averages) gives Denver sneaky value despite coaching changes."
Houston Rockets (+8000)
- Alexander: "The NBA's youngest playoff team (24.3 avg age) boasts a 15-3 March run with Jalen Green's 27.8 PPG surge. Their 112.3 Defensive Rating ranks Top 5."
Key Championship Trends
Metric | Championship Correlation |
---|---|
60+ Wins | 78% since 2000 |
Top 10 O/D | 94% of champions |
MVP Candidate | 88% roster presence |
MVP Market Analysis
Top 5 Finals MVP Candidates
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+175) - Leads playoff teams in clutch FG% (59.3)
- Jayson Tatum (+275) - Celtics' 42-4 home record boosts case
- Donovan Mitchell (+700) - 40.9% from deep vs East contenders
- Luka Doncic (+2800) - Playoff career-high 35.6 USG%
- Jaylen Brown (+1600) - Defending FMVP shooting 41.7% from 3
Betting Value Spotlight
California Teams (+1000)
- Warriors (3rd in pace), Clippers (2nd in 3P%), and Lakers combine for 12 All-Stars
- Historic 73% of championships won by CA/NY/TX teams
Knicks to Win East (+1000)
- Brunson/Towns duo averages 51.2 PPG
- 3rd in rebounding (47.1 RPG) could disrupt Boston/Cleveland