The 2025 MLB Draft Landscape: A Scouting Deep Dive

While the 2025 draft class lacks the star power of previous years' historic groups, it presents a fascinating chess match for MLB front offices. Jamie Arnold (LHP, Florida State) emerges as the consensus leader with his polished arsenal and data-friendly delivery, but the real drama lies in the razor-thin margins separating prep phenoms Eli Willits, Billy Carlson, and Ethan Holliday.

Top-Tier Talent Breakdown

• Jamie Arnold (21.2, LHP): Combines mid-90s velocity with elite vertical break on his curveball (2,800+ RPM). His 6'1" frame and repeatable mechanics draw comparisons to Chris Sale's collegiate profile.
• Eli Willits (17.6, SS): The draft's youngest elite prospect boasts a .412/.508/.734 slash line against elite high school competition. His 94 mph infield velocity and sub-6.5s 60-yard dash time defy his 5'11" frame.
• Seth Hernandez (19.0, RHP): Corona High's two-way threat hit 99 mph in the 7th inning of the NHSI championship while maintaining a 1.02 ERA. His 70-grade changeup could fast-track him to MLB bullpens.

Draft Strategy Dynamics

Teams are employing divergent approaches:

• Analytics-Driven Clubs: Prioritize Willits' youth (17.6) and 93% contact rate against premium velocity
• Traditional Scouts: Lean toward Holliday's 60-grade raw power and bloodlines (son of Matt Holliday)
• Quick-Rebuild Teams: Eyeing Arnold as a potential 2026 rotation piece with floor of SP3

Sleepers to Watch

Historical Context

This class most resembles the 2011 draft that produced Gerrit Cole (1st) and Anthony Rendon (6th) - strong on floor but lacking generational ceiling. However, the depth of 45+ FV talents (players 2-35) suggests multiple future All-Stars will emerge from later picks.

Front Office Intel

Multiple executives told ESPN:

"We're treating this like an NFL draft - trading down for volume makes more sense than chasing upside" - NL Central Scout

"Holliday's swing adjustments (launch angle +6°, exit velocity +4.2 mph) could make him this year's Evan Longoria" - AL East Crosschecker

With the signing deadline moved to August 15th (per new CBA), expect protracted negotiations as teams leverage the extended timeline to manage bonus pools.