NFL Conference Championship Games Preview

The NFC and AFC conference championships are set, with the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Washington Commanders and the Buffalo Bills facing the Kansas City Chiefs. Here's a preview of the matchups and how each team can win.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

When: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (FOX)
Opening line: PHI -5.5 (48.5)

These two NFC East rivals split the series this season. The Eagles took the first game in November 26-18 and the Commanders won the December battle 36-33, though Jalen Hurts exited with a concussion in the first quarter. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels fared well against the Eagles in 2024; he combined for 449 passing yards, a 78.2 QBR, 6 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Philadelphia and Washington last met during the playoffs in 1990 -- Washington won 20-6.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

When: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS/Paramount)
Opening line: KC -1 (48.5)

This will be the ninth meeting between quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. The two have a 4-4 head-to-head record, and Mahomes holds a 3-0 lead over Allen in the postseason. The Bills and Chiefs met in Week 11 this season; Buffalo earned the victory 30-21 in Kansas City's only loss this season with their starters. These two teams faced off in last season's divisional round, and the Chiefs won 27-24.

What to know

The Eagles have a pure talent advantage at almost every position outside of quarterback. Seriously. The Eagles have better pass catchers, a better running back, a better offensive line, a better defensive line and better defensive backs. I'm not sure any of that is even a question. Philadelphia might have had the superior linebackers when healthy, too, though with Nakobe Dean out that position might flip to Washington. Still, the Commanders will need an otherworldly Daniels to win, as he has to make up for Philadelphia's advantages all over the field.
The Chiefs will be difficult to beat as long as tight end Travis Kelce is rolling. Against the Texans, Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster all failed to catch a pass and Xavier Worthy had a pedestrian game. But the Chiefs still found enough offense to score 23 points and advance to the AFC Championship Game because of Kelce.
The Bills are the better football team. Even entering Sunday, before beating the Ravens, FPI made the Bills 2.9 points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field. Why? Because they had better play all season.

Why the Eagles will win

They have a pure talent advantage at almost every position outside of quarterback. Seriously. The Eagles have better pass catchers, a better running back, a better offensive line, a better defensive line and better defensive backs. I'm not sure any of that is even a question. Philadelphia might have had the superior linebackers when healthy, too, though with Nakobe Dean out that position might flip to Washington. Still, the Commanders will need an otherworldly Daniels to win, as he has to make up for Philadelphia's advantages all over the field.
The Eagles defense has a flair for the big moment. The snowy conditions at Lincoln Financial Field made it difficult on both offenses in the second half, and that's when Vic Fangio's group pounced. First, it was Carter stripping running back Kyren Williams for a turnover that set up a field goal, and then linebacker Nolan Smith Jr. followed suit with a strip sack of his own that set up three more points. Entering next Sunday's NFC Championship Game against the Commanders, there will be questions about quarterback Jalen Hurts' health (he appeared to injure his left leg in the second half) and whether the passing attack is up to the test. But this defense is leaving no room for questioning.

Why the Chiefs will win

They have individual players who can take over a game. Kelce, after a quiet regular season, showed he still has energy left in the tank when he racked up seven receptions for 117 yards against the Texans. Chris Jones had just 5.0 sacks in the regular season but delivered far more pass rush wins (62) and pressures (50) than any other defensive tackle. Trent McDuffie was one of the very best corners in the league. And we can't deny that Mahomes can bring postseason magic at any moment this time of year. Even in a down year for the Chiefs quarterback, Kansas City has (rightfully) relied on him, with the second-highest pass rate over expectation in the league (plus-5%), per NFL Next Gen Stats.
On paper, the Chiefs should be underdogs. But the world has seen Mahomes come up big too many times to assume he won't again. Add home-field advantage, and the Chiefs are almost as scary as ever. Almost.

Why the Bills will win

They're the better football team. Even entering Sunday, before beating the Ravens, FPI made the Bills 2.9 points better than the Chiefs on a neutral field. Why? Because they had better play all season.
The Bills' 0.25 EPA per dropback entering Sunday is almost double what the Chiefs (0.13) have put together this year. And they've been much better on the ground, too -- with a 0.07 EPA per play compared to the Chiefs' minus-.03 (some of that is buoyed by Allen's designed runs -- but hey, that will help in the AFC Championship Game, too!). Here's another way to put it: the Bills have the quarterback that has played much better this year. Allen ranked first in QBR (77.3) this season (entering the game Sunday) while Mahomes ranked eighth (67.7), and Allen gets the benefit of playing behind the superior pass protecting offensive line.
Buffalo has some pass defense questions, no doubt. But offense was what drives wins in the NFL and on that side of the ball, the Bills have a clear edge.

Early X factor

Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter: His ability to create interior havoc is critical for the defense. Including the playoffs, he has 6.5 sacks, 28 pressures and 14 tackles for loss this season. Carter will need to disrupt the pocket and make impact plays to limit Daniels and the Washington offense. -- Bowen

What we learned about the Eagles in the divisional round

This Philadelphia defense has a flair for the big moment. The snowy conditions at Lincoln Financial Field made it difficult on both offenses in the second half, and that's when Vic Fangio's group pounced. First, it was Carter stripping running back Kyren Williams for a turnover that set up a field goal, and then linebacker Nolan Smith Jr. followed suit with a strip sack of his own that set up three more points. Entering next Sunday's NFC Championship Game against the Commanders, there will be questions about quarterback Jalen Hurts' health (he appeared to injure his left leg in the second half) and whether the passing attack is up to the test. But this defense is leaving no room for questioning. -- Tim McManus

What we learned about the Commanders in the divisional round

While Daniels has proved to be special, Washington's fortunes improve when its defense and run game have nights like they did against Detroit. The Commanders forced only 17 turnovers in the regular season but now have six in the postseason, including five against the Lions. Those turnovers have led to three touchdowns.
Plus, if the Commanders can get repeat production next week from running backs Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler, they'll be tough to beat. The two backs combined for 132 yards -- only 15 shy of their previous three games combined. -- John Keim

What we learned about the Chiefs in the divisional round

Kansas City will be difficult to beat as long as tight end Travis Kelce is rolling. Against the Texans, Hollywood Brown, DeAndre Hopkins and JuJu Smith-Schuster all failed to catch a pass and Xavier Worthy had a pedestrian game. But the Chiefs still found enough offense to score 23 points and advance to the AFC Championship Game because of Kelce.
Kelce had 117 receiving yards, well more than half of the Chiefs' total and more than double his season average of 56. He seemed refreshed coming off a three-week break after the Chiefs secured the top seed with one week left in the regular season. -- Adam Teicher

What we learned about the Bills in the divisional round

The Bills' offense is clicking on all cylinders. Josh Allen had a monster game against the Ravens, throwing for 324 yards and four touchdowns. Stefon Diggs also had a big day, catching eight passes for 104 yards and a touchdown. The Bills' offensive line also played well, giving Allen plenty of time to throw and opening up holes for the running game.
The Bills' defense stepped up when it needed to. The Ravens' offense came into the game averaging 30.8 points per game, but the Bills' defense held them to just 17 points. The Bills' defense also forced two turnovers, which helped them win the game.