The WNBA Playoff Picture: Who’s In, Who’s Out?

The WNBA regular season is down to its final three weeks, and the playoff race is heating up. With the postseason set to begin on September 14, several teams are jockeying for position, while others are fighting just to stay alive. Here’s a breakdown of the current landscape and what to expect as the season winds down.

Who’s Clinched?

• Minnesota Lynx: The Lynx are the only team to have secured a playoff spot so far. With a league-best record, they’re the favorites to make a deep postseason run.

Who’s Out?

• Connecticut Sun: Eliminated from playoff contention after a tough season.
• Dallas Wings: Officially out of the race as of Tuesday.
• Chicago Sky: Likely to join the Sun and Wings in missing the playoffs.

The Contenders

The standings are tight, with just six games separating the New York Liberty in second place from the Washington Mystics in 10th. Here’s a closer look at some of the key teams still in the hunt:

Minnesota Lynx: The Favorite

Real or Not: Minnesota will lose only one playoff game.

The Lynx have been dominant this season, especially at home, where they’re 17-1. However, losing just one game in the playoffs is a tall order, especially with the Finals now a best-of-seven series. Verdict: Not real. Expect the Lynx to drop a few games, but they’re still the team to beat.

New York Liberty: Defending Champions

Real or Not: New York will fall to the 4-seed and face Minnesota in the semifinals.

The Liberty have struggled without Breanna Stewart, but with her expected return soon, they should be able to hold onto a higher seed. Verdict: Not real. New York’s schedule is favorable, and they’re likely to finish strong.

Atlanta Dream: Rising Contenders

Real or Not: The Dream have found more success with Brittney Griner coming off the bench.

With Naz Hillmon starting, the Dream have improved their floor balance. Griner has also been effective in a reserve role. Verdict: Real. This lineup could be key for Atlanta in the playoffs.

Phoenix Mercury: Title Contenders?

Real or Not: The Mercury aren’t true title contenders.

Phoenix has struggled against top teams recently, but they’re finally healthy and rounding into form. Verdict: Not real. With their big three—Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally, and Alyssa Thomas—the Mercury could be a dangerous playoff team.

Las Vegas Aces: On a Roll

Real or Not: Las Vegas will finish with a top-3 seed.

The Aces are on an eight-game winning streak, but they’ll need help from other teams to secure a top-three seed. Verdict: Not real. Their schedule is favorable, but they’ll likely finish just outside the top three.

Golden State Valkyries: Expansion Success

Real or Not: The Valkyries will reach the playoffs in their inaugural season but will be swept in the first round.

Golden State is on track to make history as the first expansion team to reach the playoffs in their first year. However, they’ll likely face a tough opponent in the first round. Verdict: Real. The Valkyries will make the playoffs but could be out quickly.

Seattle Storm: Struggling in the Clutch

Real or Not: The Storm struggle in the clutch.

Seattle has lost a league-high nine games by five points or fewer, but some of that is due to opponent shotmaking. Verdict: Partially real. The Storm need to improve in close games to secure a playoff spot.

Indiana Fever: Fighting Through Injuries

Real or Not: Injuries will finally catch up to Indiana, and the Fever won’t make the playoffs.

The Fever have been hit hard by injuries, but they’ve shown resilience. Verdict: Not real. Indiana should still find a way to make the playoffs.

Los Angeles Sparks: A Late Surge

Real or Not: Los Angeles is the team top seeds don’t want to face.

The Sparks have been one of the hottest teams in the league since July, but maintaining that momentum will be tough. Verdict: Not real. While they’re better than their record, they’re not quite ready to threaten the top seeds.

Washington Mystics: Spoiler Role

Real or Not: Washington won’t make the playoffs but will help determine the top four.

The Mystics are unlikely to make the postseason, but they could still impact the standings with games against top teams like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and New York. Verdict: Real. Washington will miss the playoffs but could play spoiler.

Key Matchups to Watch

• New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream (Tuesday): A crucial game for seeding.
• Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces (Thursday): A battle between two playoff contenders.
• Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream (Upcoming): The Lynx look to maintain their dominance.

As the regular season winds down, every game matters. Stay tuned to see how the playoff picture unfolds!