Underdogs on a Historic Run

In 2024, underdogs in college football had their most successful regular season in the modern era. According to ESPN Research, underdogs pulled off 231 outright upsets in FBS-vs.-FBS matchups, winning 29.0% of games—both records for any season since 1978. Home underdogs were particularly effective, winning 33.0% of games, the highest mark since 2004.

Betting Trends and Point Spreads

The average point spread tightened to 10.44, a 40-year low, marking the sixth consecutive season of declining spreads. This trend increased the implied probability of upsets, with underdogs covering the spread in 51.2% of games. Additionally, the 'over' had its most successful season in years, with 52.1% of FBS games exceeding the total points line.

Coach Prime vs. Belichick: Betting Public's Favorites

Coach Deion Sanders' arrival at Colorado in 2023 sparked significant betting interest, making the Buffaloes one of the most popular bets. In contrast, Bill Belichick's move to North Carolina has not generated the same enthusiasm. Despite Belichick's NFL success, the Tar Heels are attracting minimal betting interest, with oddsmakers estimating his impact at about two points per game.

Top Championship Contenders

The 2025 season features a wide-open race for the College Football Playoff. Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, Penn State, and Clemson are among the top contenders. Texas and Ohio State, who face off in Week 1, are co-favorites at many sportsbooks. Betting has been steady on Texas, with the Longhorns leading in both bets and money wagered at Caesars Sportsbook.

Heisman Trophy Race

Texas quarterback Arch Manning is the consensus favorite for the Heisman Trophy, though his +650 odds are the longest for any preseason favorite in the past 15 years. Other notable contenders include South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers, LSU's Garrett Nussmeier, and Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith.

Key Stats from the Past Four Seasons

• Home Teams: Home teams in FBS-vs.-FBS matchups have gone 1,434-1,433 against the spread.
• Top ATS Teams: Notre Dame leads with a 69.1% cover rate.
• Coaches with Best ATS Records: Arizona State's Kenny Dillingham tops the list at 18-7 ATS.
• Highest Percentage of Overs: USC leads with 67.3% of games going over the total.

Conclusion

The 2025 NCAAF season promises excitement with underdogs continuing to challenge the odds, a competitive Heisman race, and a wide-open field for the College Football Playoff. Betting trends suggest a season full of surprises and high-stakes action.