Introduction

The 2025 summer transfer window has seen its fair share of high-profile moves, but not all of them are destined for success. In this analysis, we delve into the 13 most questionable transfers, examining the potential pitfalls and why these moves might fail.

Methodology

We used a transfer projection system developed with NFL analyst Kevin Cole, which factors in age, transfer fee, and market value to predict future value changes. This system helps us identify which transfers are likely to underperform.

The Top 13 Questionable Transfers

13. Martín Zubimendi, Defensive Midfielder, Real Sociedad to Arsenal

• Age: 26
• Fee: €70 million
• Market Value: €60 million
• Projected Negative Differential: 16.7%

12. Gerson, Central Midfielder, Flamengo to Zenit Saint Petersburg

• Age: 28
• Fee: €25 million
• Market Value: €25 million
• Projected Negative Differential: 17%

11. Luis Díaz, Winger, Liverpool to Bayern Munich

• Age: 28
• Fee: €70 million
• Market Value: €70 million
• Projected Negative Differential: 17%

10. Kingsley Coman, Winger, Bayern Munich to Al-Nassr

• Age: 29
• Fee: €25 million
• Market Value: €30 million
• Projected Negative Differential: 17.3%

9. Matheus Cunha, Attacking Midfielder, Wolverhampton to Manchester United

• Age: 26
• Fee: €74.2 million
• Market Value: €60 million
• Projected Negative Differential: 21.02%

8. Alexander Isak, Forward, Newcastle to Liverpool

• Age: 25
• Fee: €140 million
• Market Value: €120 million
• Projected Negative Differential: 26%

7. Bryan Mbeumo, Winger, Brentford to Manchester United

• Age: 25
• Fee: €75 million
• Market Value: €55 million
• Projected Negative Differential: 21.6%

6. Luis Suárez, Forward, Almeria to Sporting Lisbon

• Age: 27
• Fee: €22.2 million
• Market Value: €8 million
• Projected Negative Differential: 26.82%

5. Eberechi Eze, Attacking Midfielder, Crystal Palace to Arsenal

• Age: 27
• Fee: €69.3 million
• Market Value: €55 million
• Projected Negative Differential: 26.93%

4. Mateo Retegui, Forward, Atalanta to Al Qadsiah

• Age: 26
• Fee: €68.25 million
• Market Value: €45 million
• Projected Negative Differential: 30.98%

3. Yoane Wissa, Forward, Brentford to Newcastle

• Age: 28
• Fee: €57.7 million
• Market Value: €32 million
• Projected Negative Differential: 45.27%

2. Son Heung-Min, Winger, Tottenham to LAFC

• Age: 33
• Fee: €22 million
• Market Value: €20 million
• Projected Negative Differential: 48.2%

1. Nick Woltemade, Forward, Stuttgart to Newcastle

• Age: 23
• Fee: €85 million
• Market Value: €30 million
• Projected Negative Differential: 48.5%

Conclusion

While some of these transfers might yield short-term benefits, the long-term outlook is less optimistic. Clubs must weigh the immediate impact against the potential for future value loss, making these moves some of the riskiest of the 2025 summer window.