Evaluating First-Year WNBA Coaches in the 2025 Season

Natalie Nakase, Golden State Valkyries

Preseason over/under wins: 8.5 Current win projection: 23.9 Difference: +15.4

Natalie Nakase has been a revelation for the Golden State Valkyries, leading the team to a playoff berth in their inaugural season. The Valkyries, with a preseason over/under of just 8.5 wins, have far exceeded expectations, thanks in large part to Nakase's defensive strategies. The team ranks fifth in defensive efficiency and first in fewest points allowed per game. Key players like Veronica Burton and Temi Fagbenle have flourished under Nakase's guidance, contributing significantly to the team's success.

Karl Smesko, Atlanta Dream

Preseason over/under wins: 21.5 Current win projection: 29.4 Difference: +7.9

Karl Smesko has transformed the Atlanta Dream into a formidable contender. Despite injuries to key players like Rhyne Howard and Jordin Canada, the Dream have maintained a strong performance, ranking in the top two in both offense and defense. Allisha Gray has emerged as a leading scorer, showcasing Smesko's ability to maximize player potential.

Sydney Johnson, Washington Mystics

Preseason over/under wins: 14.5 Current win projection: 17.0 Difference: +2.5

Although the Washington Mystics won't make the playoffs this year, Sydney Johnson has led the team to exceed its modest preseason win total. With a young roster, Johnson has nurtured talent like Sonia Citron and Sug Sutton, setting a foundation for future success.

Lynne Roberts, Los Angeles Sparks

Preseason over/under wins: 20.5 Current win projection: 20.7 Difference: +0.2

Lynne Roberts has brought stability to the Los Angeles Sparks, who are on track to surpass their preseason win total. Veterans like Azura Stevens and Dearica Hamby have shown improvement under Roberts' leadership, indicating positive progress for the team.

Rachid Meziane, Connecticut Sun

Preseason over/under wins: 10.5 Current win projection: 10.7 Difference: +0.2

The Connecticut Sun have struggled this season, but Rachid Meziane has managed to keep the team slightly above its preseason win projection. Young players like Leila Lacan and Saniya Rivers have shown promise, offering hope for the future.

Tyler Marsh, Chicago Sky

Preseason over/under wins: 18.5 Current win projection: 10.7 Difference: -7.8

Tyler Marsh's tenure with the Chicago Sky has been disappointing, with the team performing well below expectations. Despite offseason acquisitions, the Sky have struggled, highlighted by a significant drop in net rating.

Chris Koclanes, Dallas Wings

Preseason over/under wins: 19.5 Current win projection: 9.7 Difference: -9.8

Chris Koclanes' Dallas Wings have underperformed significantly, despite high expectations. While rookie Paige Bueckers has been a standout, the team's overall performance has been lackluster, particularly on defense.

Conclusion

The 2025 WNBA season has showcased the impact of first-year coaches, with some exceeding expectations and others facing significant challenges. As the playoffs approach, the performance of these coaches will continue to be a focal point for fans and analysts alike.