NCAAF Playoff Picture: Early Contenders and Dark Horses in the 2025 Season

As the 2025 NCAAF season unfolds, the playoff picture is already taking shape, with surprising developments and intense competition among Power 4 teams. Here’s an in-depth look at the early contenders and the enigmas that could shake up the College Football Playoff (CFP) race.

SEC Spotlight: Texas and Ole Miss

Texas Longhorns Despite high preseason expectations, the Texas Longhorns find themselves on the outside looking in. ESPN Analytics projects Texas with a 26% chance to reach the SEC championship game, trailing behind Georgia, Ole Miss, and Alabama. Quarterback Arch Manning’s performance has been underwhelming, with a QBR of 49.6 and a 44% completion rate against UTEP. Penalties, third-down conversions, and red zone efficiency remain critical issues. If Texas can navigate their remaining schedule, including a pivotal game against Georgia, they could still secure a spot in the CFP.

Ole Miss Rebels Ole Miss has emerged as a formidable contender, with a 60.1% chance to reach the playoff, according to ESPN Analytics. The Rebels face a challenging stretch, including a crucial game against Tulane, which could significantly impact their playoff aspirations. A strong performance in these matchups could position Ole Miss for a potential SEC title game appearance and a CFP berth.

Big Ten Spotlight: Illinois and USC

Illinois Fighting Illini Illinois is making waves in the Big Ten, currently ranked No. 11 in the weekly prediction. However, they face stiff competition from projected Big 12 champ Iowa State. A decisive victory against Indiana could bolster their chances of reaching the Big Ten title game and the CFP.

USC Trojans USC has quietly been building momentum, with ESPN’s computers projecting them to win every game except their Nov. 22 trip to Oregon. Avoiding Ohio State and Penn State during the regular season could work in their favor, but challenging matchups against Michigan and Notre Dame will test their playoff mettle.

ACC Spotlight: Georgia Tech and SMU

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Following a win against Clemson, Georgia Tech has a 39.9% chance to reach the ACC title game. Their remaining schedule is favorable, with the exception of a regular-season finale against Georgia. A strong performance in the ACC could secure them a playoff spot.

SMU Mustangs SMU faces a challenging path to the playoff, with critical games against TCU, Clemson, and Miami. A victory against TCU could provide a significant résumé boost and keep their playoff hopes alive.

Big 12 Spotlight: Iowa State and Utah

Iowa State Cyclones Iowa State remains in the playoff conversation, albeit precariously. Their upcoming game against Arizona will be crucial in determining their fate. A strong finish could secure them a spot in the Big 12 title game and the CFP.

Utah Utes Utah has looked impressive against weaker competition, but their first real test comes against Texas Tech. A victory could solidify their position as a serious contender in the Big 12.

Independent and Group of 5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish Notre Dame’s playoff hopes have dwindled after an 0-2 start. They must win out and rely on other contenders faltering to have a shot at the CFP.

South Florida Bulls South Florida leads the Group of 5 playoff conversation, with critical games against Memphis and Tulane on the horizon. Winning the American Athletic Conference is essential for their playoff aspirations.

Conclusion

The 2025 NCAAF season is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory. With early contenders emerging and enigmas waiting in the wings, the playoff picture will continue to evolve week by week. Stay tuned as the race to the College Football Playoff heats up.