Introduction

Football statistics are notoriously difficult to predict, but historical data shows that projecting touchdown regression is more straightforward than one might think. Over the past decade, 96% of players who scored 14 or more touchdowns in a season saw a decrease the following year. This trend is supported by overwhelming evidence from the 2016 to 2024 seasons, where 117 out of 130 players scored fewer touchdowns the next year.

Key Insights

• Historical Trends: Players with high touchdown counts often regress to the mean. For instance, 81.3% of players who scored 10 or more touchdowns in a season saw a decrease the next year, with an average drop of 4.9 touchdowns.
• Expected Touchdowns (xTD): This statistic helps predict scoring opportunities by weighing every carry and target. Players who significantly outperform their xTD are likely to see a decline.

Players to Watch

Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions

• 2024 TDs: 20
• 2025 Projected TDs: 14 Gibbs had a breakout season with 20 touchdowns, but his expected TD total was 13.2. With limited carries inside the 5-yard line, a dip is likely.

James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills

• 2024 TDs: 18
• 2025 Projected TDs: 13 Cook's 18 touchdowns were double his previous two seasons combined. However, his expected TD total was only 11.0, making a repeat performance unlikely.

Ja'Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

• 2024 TDs: 17
• 2025 Projected TDs: 12 Chase led the NFL in end zone targets and receptions, but his expected TD total was 12.2. A return to earth is expected.

Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders

• 2024 TDs: 13
• 2025 Projected TDs: 7 McLaurin's 13 touchdowns were a significant jump from his previous seasons. With limited targets, a decline is probable.

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

• 2024 TDs: 11
• 2025 Projected TDs: 7 Andrews had a high TD rate last season, but his expected TD total suggests a regression in 2025.

Conclusion

Understanding touchdown regression can provide a significant edge in fantasy football. By analyzing historical data and expected touchdowns, we can better predict which players are likely to see a decline in scoring. Keep an eye on these players as the 2025 NFL season unfolds.