Teams Most Likely to Sustain 2024 Gains

When a team experiences unexpected success, fans often hope it's the start of a new era. However, history shows that sustaining such gains is challenging. Over the past two decades, an average of 1.9 teams improve by at least 20 SP+ rating points, while 18.0 teams improve by at least 10 points. Yet, 61% of these teams regress the following season.

In 2024, 16 teams improved by at least 10 points. Based on historical trends, we can expect six or seven of these teams to continue their upward trajectory in 2025. Here are the teams most likely to build on their 2024 success:

Arizona State Sun Devils

• 2023: 3-9 record, 107th in SP+
• 2024: 11-3, 35th in SP+
• 2025 Projection: 8.4 average wins, 22nd in SP+

Arizona State's late-season surge in 2024 was impressive, but replicating 11 wins will be tough. However, with key players like QB Sam Leavitt returning and a strong senior-laden defense, the Sun Devils are poised for another solid season.

Baylor Bears

• 2023: 3-9 record, 97th in SP+
• 2024: 8-5, 38th in SP+
• 2025 Projection: 6.7 average wins, 35th in SP+

Baylor's offense was a highlight in 2024, and with most of the key contributors returning, the Bears are set to continue their upward trend. The defense will be the deciding factor in their Big 12 contention.

Buffalo Bulls

• 2023: 3-9 record, 119th in SP+
• 2024: 9-4, 87th in SP+
• 2025 Projection: 7.7 average wins, 91st in SP+

Buffalo's all-or-nothing approach in 2024 yielded their best season in four years. With a strong defense and improved offensive experience, the Bulls are expected to remain competitive in the MAC.

Illinois Fighting Illini

• 2023: 5-7 record, 75th in SP+
• 2024: 10-3, 31st in SP+
• 2025 Projection: 8.7 average wins, 19th in SP+

Illinois' 2024 season was a historic success, and with a wealth of returning production, the Illini are set to build on their gains. However, maintaining their success in close games will be crucial.

Miami Hurricanes

• 2023: 7-6 record, 28th in SP+
• 2024: 10-3, 10th in SP+
• 2025 Projection: 9.2 average wins, 12th in SP+

Miami's resurgence under Mario Cristobal has been impressive. While the offense may regress slightly, the defense is expected to improve, helping the Hurricanes sustain their top-10 status.

Pittsburgh Panthers

• 2023: 3-9 record, 91st in SP+
• 2024: 7-6, 51st in SP+
• 2025 Projection: 6.1 average wins, 47th in SP+

Pitt's 2024 season was a rollercoaster, but with key players returning and a more experienced roster, the Panthers are poised for further improvement.

Teams Most Likely to Rebound from a 2024 Stumble

For every team that rises, another falls. Over the past 20 years, an average of 1.8 teams collapse by at least 20 SP+ rating points, while 16.9 teams fall by at least 10 points. However, 64% of these teams rebound the following season.

In 2024, two teams regressed by 20-plus points, and 12 others fell by at least 10 points. Here are the teams most likely to bounce back in 2025:

Air Force Falcons

• 2023: 9-4 record, 45th in SP+
• 2024: 5-7, 111th in SP+
• 2025 Projection: 6.2 average wins, 94th in SP+

Air Force's late-season surge in 2024 suggests a rebound is on the horizon. With key players returning and a solid defense, the Falcons are expected to climb back to 7-5 or 8-4.

Florida State Seminoles

• 2023: 13-1 record, ninth in SP+
• 2024: 2-10, 83rd in SP+
• 2025 Projection: 6.8 average wins, 36th in SP+

FSU's 2024 collapse was historic, but with a rebuilt roster and a focus on defense, the Seminoles are poised for a significant rebound.

Michigan Wolverines

• 2023: 15-0 record, first in SP+
• 2024: 8-5, 26th in SP+
• 2025 Projection: 9.8 average wins, 10th in SP+

Michigan's 2024 struggles were largely due to poor QB play. With a top-10 defense and a favorable schedule, the Wolverines are set to return to form.

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

• 2023: 3-9 record, 116th in SP+
• 2024: 1-11, 133rd in SP+
• 2025 Projection: 3.4 average wins, 128th in SP+

Southern Miss' roster overhaul in 2025 makes them a wildcard. While expectations are low, any improvement from their 2024 performance will be a positive sign.

Washington Huskies

• 2023: 14-1 record, 13th in SP+
• 2024: 6-7, 58th in SP+
• 2025 Projection: 6.3 average wins, 39th in SP+

Washington's rollercoaster seasons make them hard to predict, but with a talented roster and an experienced offensive line, the Huskies are set to improve in 2025.