Introduction to NFL Overtime Changes

The NFL has implemented significant changes to its overtime rules for the 2025 season, extending the playoff OT rules to regular-season games. This shift has sparked a debate among teams and analysts about whether it's better to take the first or second possession in overtime.

Historical Context

From 1974 to 2011, the NFL's overtime was sudden death, where the first team to score won the game. This made winning the coin toss and choosing the first possession optimal. Even after the 2012 adjustment, where the second-possession team got a chance to respond to a first-possession field goal, taking the ball first remained the preferred strategy due to the potential for a game-ending touchdown.

The 2025 Rule Change

In 2025, the NFL adopted postseason overtime rules for the regular season. Now, a first-possession touchdown no longer ends the game, ensuring both teams get a chance to possess the ball unless a defensive score occurs or the 10-minute overtime period expires.

Strategic Considerations

First Possession Advantages

• Third Possession Opportunity: The first-possession team gets the ball again if the game remains tied after both teams have had their initial drives.
• Control Over Game Pace: A long opening drive can limit the time available for the second-possession team to respond.

Second Possession Advantages

• Informed Decision Making: Knowing the outcome of the first drive allows for strategic adjustments, such as going for it on fourth down or settling for a field goal.
• Potential for Sudden Death: If the first team fails to score, the second team can win with a field goal.

Analytics Insights

ESPN surveyed analytics staffers from nine NFL teams to gauge their strategies under the new rules. The results were mixed, with some leaning towards the first possession and others preferring the second, depending on matchup factors.

Practical Implications

Teams must consider various factors, including their offensive and defensive strengths, weather conditions, and the likelihood of touchbacks. The decision can also be influenced by the desire to go for two-point conversions or the value of a tie in the standings.

Conclusion

While the analytics suggest a slight advantage to taking the first possession, the decision remains nuanced and context-dependent. Teams must weigh the potential benefits and risks based on their specific circumstances and opponent behaviors.