The Championship play-offs are one of the most thrilling and unpredictable stages in football, where dreams of Premier League promotion are made or shattered. Based on historical data since 2004-05, here are five golden rules that every play-off winner has followed:

1. Avoid Being Top on Christmas Day

Teams leading the Championship table on Christmas Day often falter in the play-offs. Ipswich Town (2004-05), Watford (2007-08), and Leeds United (2018-19) all topped the table at Christmas but failed to secure promotion. This season, Sheffield United were top last Christmas but dropped out of the top two. However, their recent 3-0 victory over Bristol City suggests they might still reach the final.

2. Don’t Be Sixth on New Year’s Day

Seven teams in Championship history that were sixth on New Year’s Day failed to win promotion through the play-offs. This includes Sheffield United (2008-09), Watford (2012-13), and Sunderland (2022-23). West Brom were sixth this New Year’s Day but ended up finishing ninth.

3. Maintain Strong Form in the Final Five Games

Teams entering the play-offs with between four and 13 points in their last five games have historically fared better. Ten points out of 15 is the most common points tally for play-off winners (45% of cases). Sunderland, however, entered this year’s play-offs with zero points from their final five games, making their task even more challenging.

4. Achieve a Points Total Between 70 and 88

Only four teams have qualified for the play-offs with points totals outside the 70-88 range, and all failed to win promotion. This season, Sheffield United finished with 90 points, Coventry with 69, and Bristol City with 68. Sunderland, with 76 points, are the only team within the optimal range.

5. Avoid Specific Goal Counts in Final Five Games

Teams scoring exactly two, four, 10, 12, 13, or 15 goals in their final five games have never won promotion. This season, Sheffield United scored seven, Sunderland one, and Coventry and Bristol City six goals in their final five games. None of these totals fall into the ‘bogey’ numbers.

Bonus Insight: League Position Matters

Finishing third in the league gives teams the best chance of play-off success (45% of winners), while only 10% of winners have come from sixth place. West Ham (2004-05) and Blackpool (2009-10) are the only teams to win promotion from sixth in the last 20 years.

As the Championship play-offs reach their climax, these rules provide a fascinating insight into what it takes to secure promotion to the Premier League.